Weather Shift Could Bring Thanksgiving Snow to Northern Michigan
Mother Nature might be serving up the perfect side dish to your Thanksgiving turkey this year: snow.
Let's talk about it.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is tracking a significant pattern change headed straight for the Great Lakes region during Thanksgiving week and into early December.
For anyone who's spent November in Northern Michigan, you know exactly what this means. One day you're raking leaves in a long-sleeve shirt, the next you're scraping ice off your windshield before sunrise.
The Forecast
An Arctic outbreak is building across the northern and central United States. The forecast models show a storm system developing over eastern Colorado that will track northeastward toward the Upper Great Lakes region.
This is textbook late November weather for our neck of the woods, the kind that makes ski season feel thrillingly real.
NOAA forecasters are calling for a slight risk of heavy snow across the northern and western flanks of this system right around Thanksgiving.
The transition will likely favor more winter-like conditions across the central United States into early December, with the potential for heavy snow and below normal temperatures.
Great Lakes Weather
Thanksgiving Snow | November 27, 2024
Anyone who lives near the Great Lakes knows that November weather is nothing if not dramatic. The lake water is still relatively warm as Arctic air heads south, creating the perfect recipe for lake-effect snow dumps.
This is the time of year when you check the forecast three times before the morning commute, and it still manages to surprise you by lunch.
What's Driving This Change?
The combination of the current La Niña pattern, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the potential for a rare November Sudden Stratospheric Warming event are all contributing to this major shift.
In simpler terms?
Multiple atmospheric forces are aligning to flip the switch from fall to winter, and they're doing it with authority.
The Great Lakes will play a starring role once the cold air arrives. With water temperatures still above freezing, any sustained northwest winds will fire up the lake effect snow machine.
What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation?
Think of the Madden-Julian Oscillation as a giant wave of tropical storms and rainfall that slowly travels around the equator, completing one lap around the planet every 30 to 60 days.
The MJO has two phases: an active phase with enhanced rainfall and thunderstorms, and a suppressed phase with clearer, drier conditions. These phases create weather patterns that pulse eastward across the tropics like a slow-moving weather heartbeat.
The Lake Effect Connection
Even though the MJO happens in the tropics, it doesn't stay there. The massive circulation patterns it creates send ripples through the entire atmosphere, kind of like dropping a stone in a pond.
Lake effect snow requires two key ingredients: cold Arctic air and warm, unfrozen lake water. The MJO helps deliver the Arctic blast we're looking for. Combined with Lake Michigan's open water and northwest winds, you get lake effect snow.
Thanksgiving Snow | November 27, 2024
Get Ready
Despite mild temperatures expected across the East during the first part of Thanksgiving week, Arctic air is locked and loaded for late November.
To recap, keep your eyes on the forecast this Thanksgiving week.
Overpack for any travel plans. Maybe even throw your gear in the car, just in case.
Sharing the passion of Midwest skiing with anyone who will listen.
More to Explore
5 Reasons To Spend Winter At Boyne Mountain
There are chairlifts to ride, trails to rip, s'mores to toast, and drinks to be sipped. So, as you plan your winter weekends, remember these five reasons to stay at Boyne Mountain Resort!
Check Out The Perks
Slope Safety Refresher
Winter is coming, and the mountain is waking up. Before hitting the slopes, remember that safety is everyone's priority for a great season.
Safety First
Boyne Mountain Turns It Up for Winter 2025-26
Boyne Mountain is dialing up winter 2025-26 with a gondola car DJ booth, two midnight skiing nights, enhanced waterpark savings, and expanded snowmaking power. The fun just got turned way up.
See What's New